Read more history, have more expectations and fewer forecasts.
Forecasts only matter when conditions are constant from the moment we made them. Of course, you can have multiple models of the same thing, and one of them might accurately predict an event’s occurrence, but only if the conditions are constant.
Life is brittle, and in most cases, we won’t be able to hold the constants and end up with unexpected results. That’s not the end; what we expect will happen, but not when we want it to happen, and we learn to pay attention to this from reading history.
Read more history and when you do so as Morgan Housel said,
“…you become less surprised at whatever does happen, less confused about why it’s happening, and more confident about how people will react to it.”